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Kakšna je razlika med vlagatelji in špekulanti

9. julij 2009 ob 11:03 | Matjaž Košir |

Špekulanti so bili v tem in lanskem letu deležni žolčnih razprav, vsi po vrsti so jih obdolžili krivde za velike padce v tujini in tudi na ljubljanski borzi vrednostnih papirjev, surovin in drugih finančnih instrumentov.

Špekulanti v financah niso novost. George Soros, širši javnosti najbolj poznan špekulant, je bil leta 1992 v javnosti izpostavljen kot glavni krivec, ki je centralno banko Velike britanije prisilil v devalvacijo britanskega funta. Takrat je ‘na kratko’ prodal britanske funte (termin iz deviznega trga, ki pomeni prodajo valute, ki si jo prej izposodimo) v protivrednosti deset milijard ameriških dolarjev in zaslužil približno eno milijardo dolarjev. Naredil ni nič drugega kot to, da je izkoristil nepripravljenost centralne banke spustiti obrestno mero na primerljive nivoje glede na druga gospodarstva, ali pa sprostiti gibanje valutnega tečaja.

Na drugi strani imamo vlagatelje. O njih nikoli ne slišimo nič slabega. Izmed njih je največji heroj, čudežni deček iz Omahe, Warren Buffet. Vsakdo, ki se sreča s trgovanjem ponavadi pristopi na trg kot vlagatelj. To je normalno, saj novincem ponavadi vsi predlagajo strategijo ‘kupi in drži’.

Kaj je torej razlog za tako neenako dojemanje ene in druge skupine v javnosti in kako se ti skupini med seboj razlikujeta?

VLAGATELJI
Preprosto povedano, vlagatelj je vsakdo, ki kupi delnico z namenom, da postane lastnik deleža podjetja. Vlagatelji ocenijo prihodnjo vrednost delnice in poizkušajo opraviti nakup po nižji cen. Pri svojih odločitvah se posložujejo prav vseh metod enostavne in kompleksne fundamentalne analize v upanju, da bodo našli prezrto in podcenjeno podjetje. Pri tem so osredotočeni na dolgoročno rast.

Naložbe so pripravljeni prodati takoj, ko ocenijo, da je postalo neko podjetje na trgu precenjeno. Pri izbiri kandidatov za nakup zelo pogosto kupujejo delnice tistih podjetij, ki še ne sodelujejo v vsesplošnem, praviloma rastočem trendu. Za vlagatelje je najpomembnejša vrednost podjetja in trenutna cena delnice.

Med popravki na trgih ponavadi zadržijo delnice v svojih portfeljih in izkoriščajo padce za dodatne nakupe. Praviloma se pretirano ne obremenjuje s poslovnimi rezultati nekega podjetja na krajši rok (naprimer v zadnjem četrtletju). Zanje je mnogo bolj pomemben daljši rok in relativna uspešnost do drugih podjetij v isti panogi. Svojo naložbo ponavadi prodajo takrat, ko ugotovijo, da podjetje finančno ni več zdravo oziroma, ko se poslabšajo izgledi o prihodnosti.

Filozofija vlagateljev se vrsti okoli kupovanja podjetij. Ko na trgu ne najdejo primernih priložnosti, so pripravljeni vlagati v obveznice in druge instrumente z nizkim tveganjem.

ZNAČILNOSTI VLAGATELJEV
- Pripravljeni so kupovati delnice podjetij za katere večina meni, da niso zanimiva.
- Pripravljeni so vlagati dodatna sredstva ob padanju cene delnice, če verjamejo, da je
podjetje zdravo.
- Pripravljeni so držati izgube z namenom pobiranja dobičkov v prihodnosti.
- Nimajo natančnega časovnega in vrednostnega cilja pri kupovanju delnice.
- Pri vlaganju v delnice vedno razumejo posel v katerem podjetje deluje.

PREDNOSTI
- Zaradi dolgoročnega vlaganja jih investicije ne obremenjujejo na dnevnem nivoju.
- Kupujejo le fundamentalno zdrava podjetja, ki bodo v prihodnosti verjetno pridobivala
na vrednosti.
- Zaradi odločanja na podlagi finančnih izkazov in bilanc se pri vlaganju lažje izognejo
čustveni vpletenosti in adrenalinski napetosti.

SLABOSTI
- Branje in analiziranje finančnih poročil je lahko za mnoge zapleteno in časovno
zahtevno opravilo.
- Težko je natančno določiti ceno delnice pri kateri postane investicija zanimiva.
- Če bi bili na trgu zgolj vlagatelji, ne bi bilo volatilnosti, precej manj pa bi bili delniški
trgi tudi likvidni.

Špekulanti se od vlagateljev v osnovi razlikujejo v enem bistvenem filozofskem konceptu, a več o tem bom napisal v kolumni čez en teden. Takrat bom tudi potegnil primerjavo in razložil, kako je mogoče kombinirati oba načina trgovanja.

Matjaž Košir

Avtor je analitik v trgovalni ekipi TradePort, Poteza d. d.

Povzeto po članku John-a Devcic-a “Investors And Speculators”, working-money.com, junij 2009.

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Komentarji - 449 x komentirano
  1. medek pravi:

    Koprsko sodišče je sprožilo postopek prisilne poravnave za Istrabenz
    http://www.dnevnik.si/poslovni_dnevnik/1042282134

    mora v 15 dnevih po vročitvi sklepa poravnati predujem za stroške postopka prisilne poravnav v višini slabih 60.000 evrov. V nasprotnem primeru bo sodišče postopke prisilne poravnave ustavilo in začelo s stečajnim postopkom.

    Iz poročila, ki ga je o načrtu finančnega prestrukturiranja Istrabenza sestavil pooblaščeni ocenjevalec družba KPMG, je razvidno, da znaša skupni dolg družbe trenutno 456,2 milijonov evrov. Skupno premoženje Istrabenza je ocenjeno med 555 in 583 milijoni evri. Istrabenz upnikom ponuja 100-odstotno poplačilo nezavarovanih terjatev in zagotavlja tudi 2,5-odstotno fiksno nominalno letno obrestno mero.

    Pooblaščeni cenilec družba KPMG opozarja, da bo povračilo terjatev v prisilni poravnavi kljub vsemu nižje od 100 odstotkov. Kot razlog navajajo “diskontiranje bodočih denarnih tokov na dan 31. marca z višjo netvegano mero donosa (4,008 odstotka) kot je predlagana obrestna mera dolžnika (2,5 odstotka)”.

    Odstotek poplačil nezavarovanih terjatev upnikov bo v primeru prisilne poravnave po njihovi oceni znašal 96 odstotkov, v primeru stečaja pa bi znašal okrog 77 odstotkov. Stečajni postopek bi po oceni pooblaščenega cenilca trajal najmanj do leta 2014.

    Istrabenz bo poplačilo upnikov zagotovil do leta 2014, in sicer z odprodajo premoženja in odložitvijo zapadlih obveznosti. Glede na načrt finačnega prestrukturiranja naj bi se odprodaja naložb začela prihodnje leto.

    V letu 2010 naj bi Istrabenz prodal za 81 milijonov evrov naložb, v letu 2011 za 40 milijonov evrov, v letu 2012, ko naj bi Istrabenz prvič posloval s pozitivnim kapitalom, pa za 131 milijonov evrov naložb. V letu 2013 je predvideno le plačilo obresti, v letu 2014 pa naj bi Istrabenz končno odprodal še za 222 milijonov evrov premoženja.

    Takrat naj bi skupni kapital družbe znašal približno 61 milijonov evrov, premoženje družbe pa naj bi preseglo njene obveznosti. Glede na projekcije poslovanja naj bi bil holding po letu 2016, ko bo zaključen postopek prisilne poravnave, finančno vzdržen, posloval bo v nižjem obsegu sredstev in brez dolga.

  2. medek pravi:

    Če ga zaserješ res na veliko, si car, cela država je tvoj talec. Ali pa, če si amerikajner, potem je cel svet tvoj talec :)

  3. NoMercy pravi:

    špekulant je tisti, ki ogromno zasluži, kdaj pa tudi pušne.
    Vlagatelj pa je zadovoljen z drobtinicami.

  4. DragicaJ pravi:

    Kakšna je razlika med novinarji in novinarji?

  5. Js pravi:

    Uf, groba napaka v zadnjem stavku:
    Po-vzet-o po član-ku John-a Devcic-a “Investor-s And Speculator-s”, work-ing-money.com, junij- 2009.

    Takole bo pa prav, kajne :rolleyes:

  6. Q_ pravi:

    Tudi Buffet se ukvarja s šort seli.

  7. medek pravi:

    http://www.mladina.si/dnevnik/09-07-2009-hrvaska__mafijska_drzava/

    Obremenilni dokumenti Hypo banke
    Prve informacije o tem je objavil prav Domagoj Margetić, novinar in urednik spletne strani necenzurirano.com, kjer si je mogoče prebrati več podrobnosti o ozadju Sanaderjevega odstopa, predvsem tukaj. Margetić, ki je znan po tem, da ima dobre zveze z viri v hrvaških obveščevalnih strukturah, je leta 2007 haaško sodišče (ICTY) obsodilo zaradi “žalitve sodišča”, saj je razkril identiteto nekaterih zaščitenih prič v procesu proti hrvaškemu generalu Blaškiću. Margetić je moral plačati 10.000 evrov kazni in preživeti mesec dni v zaporu. Da ima kljub temu (in morda tudi zato) odlične zveze s hrvaškimi obveščevalci, pa dokazujemo tudi informacije o Sanaderjevi vpletenosti v pranje denarja preko Hypo banke v Celovcu, ki jih je Margetić objavil že leta 2006. Hrvaški mediji so to afero res spremljali na nenavadno površen način. Da je afera globlja, dokazuje podatek, da je Margetić hrvaškim pravosodnim organom potem, ko so ga dvakrat zaslišali na “informativnih pogovorih” izročil številne kompromitirajoče dokumente, ki menda hudo bremenijo nekdanjega hrvaškega premiera Iva Sanaderja. To potrjujejo tudi naše ocene, da je nekdanji hrvaški premier najverjetneje odstopil zaradi vpletenosti v nezakonite posle in zaradi izsiljevanja in ne zaradi razlogov, ki jih je navajal sam.

  8. medek pravi:

    Da je več stečajnih upraviteljev v zadnjih dneh pred spremembo pravilnika še izkoristilo možnost za izplačilo nagrad po starem, bi lahko dokazovala vsaj dva indica. Prvič, sodišča so več upraviteljem odmerila nagrade, ki bistveno presegajo omejitve iz novega pravilnika. Tako bo stečajni upravitelj Hranilno-kreditne službe (HKS) Sicura Brane Gorše, ki je predlog za izplačilo nagrade vložil 15. junija, torej dva dni po začetku veljavnosti ZFPPIPP-A, v okviru treh nadomestil skupaj z DDV prejel 167.700 evrov, kar je dvakrat več, kot bi lahko prejel po novem pravilniku. Štefan Veren, ki vodi stečajni postopek v ljubljanski Avtomontaži-Bus, bo le kot nadomestilo za unovčenje stečajne mase, ki po novem pravilniku ne sme presegati 50.000 evrov, prejel petkrat višji znesek, natančneje 255.000 evrov. Še dodatnih 205.000 evrov nagrade pa mu je ljubljansko sodišče v teh dneh odmerilo za vodenje stečaja Pletenine.

    Tudi Boris Kastivnik, stečajni upravitelj dravograjskega Plan Exporta, ki ima za dobrih 800.000 evrov premoženja, bo za izdelavo otvoritvenega poročila prejel več od 20.000 evrov, kar je zgornja meja, ki jo določa nov pravilnik. Okrožno sodišče v Slovenj Gradcu mu je namreč odmerilo 33.140 evrov nadomestila. Še višja zneska za izdelavo enakega poročila je isto sodišče prisodilo Miranu Ocepku, ki vodi stečaj Tovarne Muta-Kmetijska mehanizacija, in Tonetu Kozelju (Lesna pohištvo Pameče): prvi bo prejel 69.200 evrov, drugi pa dobrih 100.000 evrov. Zgolj preostanek nagrade, ki ga je celjsko sodišče pred dnevi odmerilo stečajnemu upravitelju Pivovarne Tara Tomažu Kosu, je skoraj enak zgornji meji vsote treh nadomestil, ki jih bodo lahko od jutri prejeli stečajni upravitelji (80.000 evrov).

    Drugi indic, ki bi lahko dokazoval, da so stečajni upravitelji z izplačilom nagrad pohiteli zaradi novega pravilnika, so datumi predlogov za odmero nagrad, ki so jih vložili na sodišče. To je namreč več stečajnih upraviteljev storilo šele v prvih dneh julija, pri čemer velja spomniti, da so na ministrstvu za pravosodje o ponovni uvedbi omejitev višine nagrad na glas razmišljali že v zadnjih dneh junija. Tomaž Kos, ki je tudi predsednik društva stečajnih upraviteljev, je tako predlog za izplačilo preostanka nagrade v stečaju Pivovarne Tara na sodišče vložil 1. julija. Stečajni upravitelj Tovarne Muta Miran Ocepek je predlog za izplačilo nadomestila za otvoritveno poročilo in preizkus terjatev vložil še dva dni kasneje, sodišče pa ga je potrdilo v sredo. Da stečajni upravitelji niso žrtve sodnih zaostankov, je dokazal tudi Štefan Veren (Pletenina), ki je predlog za odmero nagrade na ljubljansko okrožno sodišče vložil 6. julija, sodišče pa je sklep o odmeri nagrade sprejelo že naslednji dan.

    Na ministrstvu za pravosodje naših podatkov v minulih dneh niso želeli komentirati.
    http://www.dnevnik.si/novice/aktualne_zgodbe/1042282305

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