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Najboljše četrtletje

2. julij 2009 ob 8:44 | Nikola Maljković |

V torek se je zaključilo drugo četrtletje in seveda prva polovica trgovanja v letošnjem letu. Pogled na spremembe delniških indeksov v drugem četrtletju v ZDA povedo veliko o rasti tečajev delnic. SP500 je v preteklih treh mesecih zabeležil rast v višini 15,22 odstotkov, Dow Jones Industrials 11 odstotkov ter tehnološki Nasdaq100 19,42 odstotkov. SP500 indeks je tako zabeležil največjo četrtletno rast od leta 1998.

Večji del četrtletne rasti se je zgodil v aprilu, maju in juniju pa smo bili priča gibanju tečajev znotraj omejenega območja, torej brez pravega trenda. Trejderji zato pozorno spremljamo morebitne preboje tega omejenega območja za morebiten začetek večjega trenda v smeri preboja.

Tisti trejderji, ki verjamejo v nadaljevanje rasti, pravijo, da je trenutna umiritev pozitivna za prihodnost, saj je povsem “normalno”, da po močni rasti od začetka marca pride do konsolidacije in da kljub nekaterim slabšim ekonomskim podatkom tečaji še vedno niso zabeležili večjega padca.

Tisti, ki pa so pesimitični glede prihodosti, pa po drugi strani pravijo, da so kupci utrujeni, saj reakcije na boljše ekonomske podatke niso več evforične, hkrati tudi ekonomski podatki zaenkrat še ne potrjujejo, da smo zabeležili dno.

Ob takšnem stanju opažamo precej dnevnih reakcij na objave in novice, ko en dan pride do večje rasti zaradi pozitivne novice, spet drug dan pride do padca, ker je bil objavljen ekonomski podatek pod pričakovanji analitikov.

V takšnem okolju sem se v zadnjem mesecu odločil predvsem za dnevno trgovanje, za kaj več pa sem čakal na preboj pomembnejših odpornih nivojev. Za večdnevno/tedensko pozicijo trenutno prodajam na kratko SP500 indeks vse do odpornega nivoja okoli 930, ki se je včeraj izkazal za premočno oviro. Glavni razlog za obrat je bila objava podatka ozaupanju ameriških potrošnikov, ki ni dosegla pričakovanja analitikov.

Ker se zavedam, da bo lahko zaradi novih pomembnih ekonomskih objav v ZDA že danes oziroma jutri vzdušje popolnoma drugačno, se še ne navdušujem nad včerajšnjim padcem, saj bi se verjetnost za večji padec povečala šele, ko bi tečaj SP500 indeksa prebil in zaključil pod pomembnim podpornim območjem pri 875/880 .Ta nivo tudi predstavlja spodnjo mejo omejenega območja, ki sem ga že omenil.

Danes bom pozoren na ekonomske podatke iz proizvodnega sektorja, nepremičninskega trga ter trga dela, jutri pa na vedno pomemben podatek o stopnji brezposelnosti in spremembi števila zaposlenih v nekmetijskem sektorju ZDA.

Zaenkrat je moja strategija igrati na padec tečajev s prodajami na kratko SP500 indeksa do nivoja 930 in izstopom pri zaključku nad 940 ter prvim ciljem pri nivoju 875/880. Ob morebitnem preboju tega nivoja bi dodatno povečal prodajno pozicijo, saj bi se s tem precej povečala verjetnost za padec proti 800/830.

slika

V naslednjih tednih bom precej pozoren tudi na objave poslovnih rezultatov in predvsem napovedi podjetij, saj bodo le-te glavni fokus trejderjev v poletnem času.
Veliko se govori o precej boljših rezultatih ameriških bank, zato bom pred začetkom objav (Goldman Sachs pričenja objave bank 13.julija) ponovno analiziral morebiti še aktualno prodajno pozicijo.

Nikola Maljković
Avtor je analitik v trgovalni ekipi TradePort, Poteza d. d.

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  101. 인천출장안마 pravi:

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  114. 서울출장마사지 pravi:

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  115. 인천출장샵 pravi:

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  116. 인천출장샵 pravi:

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  134. 서울출장마사지 pravi:

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  157. 서울출장마사지 pravi:

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  172. 서울출장안마 pravi:

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  173. 인천출장안마 pravi:

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  176. 서울출장샵 pravi:

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  178. 인천출장샵 pravi:

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  179. 출장샵 pravi:

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  183. 인천출장안마 pravi:

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