UMAR sporoča
2. oktober 2008 ob 18:10 | Urh Maček |Urad RS za makroekonomske analize in razvoj (Umar) Sloveniji za leto 2008 napoveduje 4,8-odstotno gospodarsko rast, prihodnje leto pa predvsem zaradi razmer v mednarodnem okolju upočasnitev na 3,1 odstotka. Letna stopnja inflacije, ki bo letos predvidoma znašala 5,3 odstotka, pa naj bi se v letu 2009 znižala na 3,6 odstotka.
Urad je v danes objavljeni jesenski napovedi gospodarskih gibanj za leto 2008 nekoliko zvišal napoved letošnje stopnje gospodarske rasti in sicer za 0,4 odstotne točke. Napovedi za prihodnje leto vsebujejo za odstotno točko nižjo rast kot letos spomladi. V letu 2009 bo prišlo do pomembnejše umiritve gospodarske rasti predvsem zaradi razmer v mednarodnem okolju ter pričakovanj, da nam ne bo uspelo zadržati tako visoke rasti investicij kot v preteklih dveh letih, je povedal direktor Umar Boštjan Vasle.
“Upočasnitev gospodarske rasti v mednarodnem okolju bo večja in dolgotrajnejša, kot pa smo pričakovali spomladi,” je povedal Vasle. Aktualne napovedi kažejo, da bo gospodarska rast v naših pomembnih trgovinskih partnericah približno polovico nižja kot lani, medtem ko naj bi se v novih članicah EU ter državah zahodnega Balkana tudi v prihodnjih dveh letih ohranile razmeroma visoke stopnje rasti.
Kljub znižanju napovedi bomo še vedno beležili za dva do trikrat višjo gospodarsko rast kot pa ostale države članice območja evra. Seveda pa ostaja opozorilo, da utegne biti v primeru večjih posledic mednarodne finančne krize, kot se napovedujejo sedaj, gospodarska rast v Sloveniji nižja od napovedane.
Pogovor z direktorjem UMAR:
Urh Maček
2. oktober, 2008 ob 18:46
Tale g. “UMAR” je vedno bolj podoben tistemu pilotu iz Odiseje 2001.
HAL 9000 je tudi pri njih odpovedal..
3. oktober, 2008 ob 14:24
UMAR lahko kar razpustijo, ker jim v zadnjih dveh letih ni uspel niti en izračun
so hujši kot vremenarji
TV vedeževalci bi znali natančneje napovedati gospodarska gibanja
3. oktober, 2008 ob 20:36
http://www.alternet.org/columnists/story/99812/financial_weapons_of_mass_destruction/
Capital destruction
Indeed, rising interest rates destroy wealth as they render the productivity of capital
submarginal. Establishment economists and financial journalists preach the false doctrine that,
conversely, when the government and its central bank suppress interest rates, new wealth is
being created. This is the gravest error of all! Falling interest rates destroy capital in a most
devious way, as they increase the liquidation-value of debt contracted earlier at higher rates.
All observers miss the point that as interest rates fall, the burden of servicing outstanding
debt is increased. They blithely assume that all debt is automatically refinanced at the lower
rate. This is definitely not the case. The issuer must continue to redeem the maturing coupons
of fixed nominal value, regardless how far the rate of interest may have fallen after selling the
bond. To that extent all issuers of bonds (along with other borrowers) are subject to
impairment on capital account in a falling interest rate environment. If the impairment is
ignored, the outcome is wholesale bankruptcies in due course.
Enterprises should make up for losses of capital due to falling interest rates whenever
they occur. The trouble is that they don’t. As a result they report losses as profits. There is a
negative feedback. Capital is eroded further. When the truth dawns upon them, it is already
too late. I shall argue that this is the essence of the present banking crisis in America, and it
was caused by the destabilization of the interest rate structure, the ultimate cause of which
was the overthrow of the gold standard in 1971.
Interest rates have been falling for the past 28 years with the result that the liquidationvalue
of outstanding debt has reached the tipping point, where capital is plunged into negative
territory. Capital dissipation stops as there is nothing more to dissipate. This is sudden death
for the enterprise. Producing firms fold tent and look for greener pastures in Asia where wage
rates are lower, while financial firms and banks start falling like dominoes.
No commentator is able to explain how American banks could run out of capital in
spite of obscene profits they have been making. My explanation is simple. Capital destruction
has been going on stealthily for 28 years but the banks were not paying attention. The
magnitude of the decline in interest rates, if not its length, is historically unprecedented. The
banks have been paying out phantom profits in dividends and in compensation, in the belief
that their capital accounts were in good shape. They were not. They were insidiously eroded
by the falling interest rate structure, as it inevitably increased the cost of servicing capital
already deployed. The banks were unwilling or unable to raise new capital to cover the
shortfall. Under these circumstances they should have reduced their own exposure to
borrowing. Instead, they were vastly expanding it. By the time they woke up, capital was gone
and they were in the grips of bankruptcy.
This puts the importance of the gold standard into high relief. Both rising and falling
interest rates are extremely harmful to enterprises, banks not excepted. The plight of General
Motors is no different from that of Morgan Stanley. The environment in which they can safely
prosper is that of stable interest rates, that only a gold standard can provide.
http://www.professorfekete.com/